Wednesday, May 11, 2005
Canadian Politics 101 (Hand in the Cookie Jar)
Big news from Ottawa today - the Conservative opposition managed to get a no-confidence motion passed against the minority Liberal government last night (153 to 150 votes) but the government is refusing to recognise the vote and resign, so there will be more shenanigans today, no doubt. It looks like there's going to be an election some time very soon. Not that it'll change much, as Canada seems evenly divided between the Tories and the Grits (the Liberals). The current crisis has been precipitated by something called the Sponsorship Scandal. The story goes like this:
1. The French-Canadian province of Quebec had been talking about becoming independent from Canada for years and held a referendum in 1995 to see if the people really wanted to split from the rest of the country. The 'separatists' narrowly lost, but gave the Liberal government a good scare.
Where is Quebec?
2. The Liberals decided that they had to do something to keep Quebec on-side, so they put in place a 'Sponsorship Program' in which they would spend lots of Federal money on convincing the people of Quebec that they should remain part of Canada. The main part of this program was aimed at sponsoring events and advertising campaigns within Quebec to emphasise what a jolly nice place Canada was and how you'd be mad to think of leaving it. The PM at the time was Frency-type, Quebec-born fellow Jean Chretien.
Chretien
3. Chretien resigns in December 2003, 8 years after the Sponsorship program started. Paul Martin becomes new Liberal PM. Calls an election in June 2004 (just after we arrived here) and forms a minority government. The other parties are the Conservatives (right-wingers, mainly popular in the West, very popular in Alberta), the NDP (National Democratic Party, lefty Labour types) and the Bloc Quebecois (pronounced blok-ke-bek-qua, the Quebec separatist party, a bit like the Scottish Nationalists).
Paul Martin, also known as 'Mr Dithers'
4. Meanwhile, the Auditor General had been sniffing around the Sponsorship Program and in Feb 2004, she issued a damning report, saying:
Senior government officials running the federal government's advertising and sponsorship contracts in Quebec, as well as five Crown corporations the RCMP, Via Rail, Canada Post, the Business Development Bank of Canada and the Old Port of Montreal wasted money and showed disregard for rules, mishandling millions of dollars since 1995.
More than $100 million was paid to various communications agencies in the form of fees and commissions, Fraser found. In most cases the agencies did little more than hand over the cheques.
So it seems that the Liberal Party, which has a big power-base in Quebec, was basically giving money away to friendly Quebec ad agencies. Lots of money - 100 million was the first estimate, then they said 200 million. And they were giving it away in brown paper bags, under table in restaurants. It looked pretty bad. Of course, Chretien had already gone and although Martin had been his finance minister (you know, looking after _money_), he said he didn't know about any of this but that he would set up a commission, the Gomery Inquiry to get to the bottom of it all.
Brown Paper Bag
5. The Gomery Inquiry had been taking evidence all year and will report in December. Chretien has been questioned, and basically said he couldn't remember anything specific and anyway, he was the PM, so he could do anything he wanted. He's a slippery French bugger. Martin was also up, and essentially said 'dunno'. Last month, there was a lot of testimony given in secret under a publication ban, so it couldn't be discussed in Canada, but it leaked out to the American blogger sites anyway, so eventually the ban was lifted. It turned out that not only was money being given away to Quebec ad agencies, but it was also being funnelled from the government into the pockets of Liberal party staff and back into party coffers, effectively robbing the tax-payers to pay the party.
Hand in the Cookie Jar
This was just what the Conservatives had been waiting for, evidence that the Liberals had been stealing from the people. Even if Martin didn't know about it, as finance minister he should have. The Tories, the Bloc and the NDP have more votes in Parliament than the Liberals, so they should be able to bring them down in short order.
In response, Martin went on national TV and announced that he would hold an election after the Gomery Inquiry's report, in December. He also agreed to change the budget, which still hasn't passed, to add 4.5 billion dollars for social programs in exchange for NDP support. Even with the NDP's support, Martin still doesn't have enough votes to survive a confidence motion against the Tories and the Bloc. He's also been announcing a few new spending initiatives - an average of 72 million dollars in spending has been announced every day since the crisis started. It's the same pattern as before - when there's a problem, throw money at it.
Anyway, no-ones too sure what yesterday's vote in the Commons means. The Tories say it was a standard no-confidence motion, and the government should go, while the government says it wasn't. If it wasn't important, it's hard to see why 150 Liberals and NDPers hung about into the evening for the vote.
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Ottawa
It's likely to go to the Queen's Representative, the Governor General, to determine the exact constitutional position. She can suspend parliament, dissolve the government or recommend that another confidence motion be voted upon. If the government falls, the Budget will fail to pass, which will leave a few of Provinces up in the air, as they won't have their Equalisation payments sorted out.
The Governor General
[Quick aside here - the Provinces are divided up into the Haves and Have-Nots. eg. Alberta is a Have (lots of oil money) while Nova Scotia is a Have-Not (lots of fish). The idea of Equalisation is that the Haves give their extra money to the Have-Nots. Some provinces like Newfoundland & Labrador have off-shore oil money which flows back to Ottawa and the province wants a bigger cut of its own resources. The new budget gives more money back to provinces like Newfoundland, but if the government falls the Budget will fail and they won't get their dosh. Isn't democracy wonderful?)
The Haves and Have Nots
So what will happen next? Well, the Liberal government is clearly going to fall, sooner rather than later. There's no way they can last to December with the Tories and the Bloc gunning for them, and able to out-vote them in any number of confidence motions. Martin is pleading for more time, going on TV and handing out money like a man with no arms, which only makes him look even weaker than he is. He's so busy trying to hold on to power that the country seems stuck, and nothing is moving forward. There will probably be an election in July, which makes the Queen's upcoming visit later this month a bit of a problem (she's coming for the 100th anniversary celebrations of Alberta and Saskatchewan, but she likes to avoid elections-related controversy, so she might cancel at the last minute if the government falls.
Coming or Not?
And what then? Well, an election won't really solve the problem, as the country is still divided. Quebec will vote for the Bloc, the east will vote Liberal and the west will vote Conservative. Whoever wins in Ontario will probably form the next government, which really irritates Albertans. In Ontario, the Liberals are spending lots of cash in anti-Tory ads suggesting that the Tory Leader, Stephen Harper, has a 'secret agenda' to abolish free health-care, social welfare and generally to make the whole country more like That Awful Place Alberta. The Tories on the other hand are planning to run on the slogan 'At Least We Won't Steal Your Money'. So there's a lot at stake in Ontario.
Where is Ontario?
The next government is unlikely to have a big majority in any case, and may be another minority, so there's likely to be more instability in the future. In the longer term, and remembering that the mess started with the Quebec referendum 10 years ago, the whole crisis has only served to strengthen the separatist vote in Quebec, with the Bloc expected to get more than 2/3 of the vote. The end result of the Sponsorship Program may be to bring down the Liberals and allow Quebec to leave the confederation of Canadian provinces. And once Quebec leaves, the voices of the Western separatists will be heard even louder: "how come Ontario gets to decide who's in charge, and why are we always governed by eastern, French-speaking Liberals?" Alberta has enough cash to go it alone, after all, being the only debt-free province of them all. This whole thing could end up with Eastern Canada, Western Canada and Quebec going their separate ways after all...
More news as it happens....
1. The French-Canadian province of Quebec had been talking about becoming independent from Canada for years and held a referendum in 1995 to see if the people really wanted to split from the rest of the country. The 'separatists' narrowly lost, but gave the Liberal government a good scare.
Where is Quebec?
2. The Liberals decided that they had to do something to keep Quebec on-side, so they put in place a 'Sponsorship Program' in which they would spend lots of Federal money on convincing the people of Quebec that they should remain part of Canada. The main part of this program was aimed at sponsoring events and advertising campaigns within Quebec to emphasise what a jolly nice place Canada was and how you'd be mad to think of leaving it. The PM at the time was Frency-type, Quebec-born fellow Jean Chretien.
Chretien
3. Chretien resigns in December 2003, 8 years after the Sponsorship program started. Paul Martin becomes new Liberal PM. Calls an election in June 2004 (just after we arrived here) and forms a minority government. The other parties are the Conservatives (right-wingers, mainly popular in the West, very popular in Alberta), the NDP (National Democratic Party, lefty Labour types) and the Bloc Quebecois (pronounced blok-ke-bek-qua, the Quebec separatist party, a bit like the Scottish Nationalists).
Paul Martin, also known as 'Mr Dithers'
4. Meanwhile, the Auditor General had been sniffing around the Sponsorship Program and in Feb 2004, she issued a damning report, saying:
Senior government officials running the federal government's advertising and sponsorship contracts in Quebec, as well as five Crown corporations the RCMP, Via Rail, Canada Post, the Business Development Bank of Canada and the Old Port of Montreal wasted money and showed disregard for rules, mishandling millions of dollars since 1995.
More than $100 million was paid to various communications agencies in the form of fees and commissions, Fraser found. In most cases the agencies did little more than hand over the cheques.
So it seems that the Liberal Party, which has a big power-base in Quebec, was basically giving money away to friendly Quebec ad agencies. Lots of money - 100 million was the first estimate, then they said 200 million. And they were giving it away in brown paper bags, under table in restaurants. It looked pretty bad. Of course, Chretien had already gone and although Martin had been his finance minister (you know, looking after _money_), he said he didn't know about any of this but that he would set up a commission, the Gomery Inquiry to get to the bottom of it all.
Brown Paper Bag
5. The Gomery Inquiry had been taking evidence all year and will report in December. Chretien has been questioned, and basically said he couldn't remember anything specific and anyway, he was the PM, so he could do anything he wanted. He's a slippery French bugger. Martin was also up, and essentially said 'dunno'. Last month, there was a lot of testimony given in secret under a publication ban, so it couldn't be discussed in Canada, but it leaked out to the American blogger sites anyway, so eventually the ban was lifted. It turned out that not only was money being given away to Quebec ad agencies, but it was also being funnelled from the government into the pockets of Liberal party staff and back into party coffers, effectively robbing the tax-payers to pay the party.
Hand in the Cookie Jar
This was just what the Conservatives had been waiting for, evidence that the Liberals had been stealing from the people. Even if Martin didn't know about it, as finance minister he should have. The Tories, the Bloc and the NDP have more votes in Parliament than the Liberals, so they should be able to bring them down in short order.
In response, Martin went on national TV and announced that he would hold an election after the Gomery Inquiry's report, in December. He also agreed to change the budget, which still hasn't passed, to add 4.5 billion dollars for social programs in exchange for NDP support. Even with the NDP's support, Martin still doesn't have enough votes to survive a confidence motion against the Tories and the Bloc. He's also been announcing a few new spending initiatives - an average of 72 million dollars in spending has been announced every day since the crisis started. It's the same pattern as before - when there's a problem, throw money at it.
Anyway, no-ones too sure what yesterday's vote in the Commons means. The Tories say it was a standard no-confidence motion, and the government should go, while the government says it wasn't. If it wasn't important, it's hard to see why 150 Liberals and NDPers hung about into the evening for the vote.
Ottawa
It's likely to go to the Queen's Representative, the Governor General, to determine the exact constitutional position. She can suspend parliament, dissolve the government or recommend that another confidence motion be voted upon. If the government falls, the Budget will fail to pass, which will leave a few of Provinces up in the air, as they won't have their Equalisation payments sorted out.
The Governor General
[Quick aside here - the Provinces are divided up into the Haves and Have-Nots. eg. Alberta is a Have (lots of oil money) while Nova Scotia is a Have-Not (lots of fish). The idea of Equalisation is that the Haves give their extra money to the Have-Nots. Some provinces like Newfoundland & Labrador have off-shore oil money which flows back to Ottawa and the province wants a bigger cut of its own resources. The new budget gives more money back to provinces like Newfoundland, but if the government falls the Budget will fail and they won't get their dosh. Isn't democracy wonderful?)
The Haves and Have Nots
So what will happen next? Well, the Liberal government is clearly going to fall, sooner rather than later. There's no way they can last to December with the Tories and the Bloc gunning for them, and able to out-vote them in any number of confidence motions. Martin is pleading for more time, going on TV and handing out money like a man with no arms, which only makes him look even weaker than he is. He's so busy trying to hold on to power that the country seems stuck, and nothing is moving forward. There will probably be an election in July, which makes the Queen's upcoming visit later this month a bit of a problem (she's coming for the 100th anniversary celebrations of Alberta and Saskatchewan, but she likes to avoid elections-related controversy, so she might cancel at the last minute if the government falls.
Coming or Not?
And what then? Well, an election won't really solve the problem, as the country is still divided. Quebec will vote for the Bloc, the east will vote Liberal and the west will vote Conservative. Whoever wins in Ontario will probably form the next government, which really irritates Albertans. In Ontario, the Liberals are spending lots of cash in anti-Tory ads suggesting that the Tory Leader, Stephen Harper, has a 'secret agenda' to abolish free health-care, social welfare and generally to make the whole country more like That Awful Place Alberta. The Tories on the other hand are planning to run on the slogan 'At Least We Won't Steal Your Money'. So there's a lot at stake in Ontario.
Where is Ontario?
The next government is unlikely to have a big majority in any case, and may be another minority, so there's likely to be more instability in the future. In the longer term, and remembering that the mess started with the Quebec referendum 10 years ago, the whole crisis has only served to strengthen the separatist vote in Quebec, with the Bloc expected to get more than 2/3 of the vote. The end result of the Sponsorship Program may be to bring down the Liberals and allow Quebec to leave the confederation of Canadian provinces. And once Quebec leaves, the voices of the Western separatists will be heard even louder: "how come Ontario gets to decide who's in charge, and why are we always governed by eastern, French-speaking Liberals?" Alberta has enough cash to go it alone, after all, being the only debt-free province of them all. This whole thing could end up with Eastern Canada, Western Canada and Quebec going their separate ways after all...
More news as it happens....
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