Carrick to Calgary

Tomorrow sees the end of a long and bitter election campaign here in Canada. The minority Liberal government lost a vote of confidence before Christmas, throwing the country into a winter election campaign. There was a lot of controversy over this (no-one wants to go out and knock on doors in a snowstorm, and vote when it's minus 40), but the winter has been the mildest one for the last 10 years so far and the campaign has gone pretty smoothly. For those of us new to the Canadian political scene, there are three main parties:


The Liberals
Ideology: Left-wing socialists who have been in power for the last 13 years. Recently mired in scandal and corruption charges, criticised for paying 100s of millions of $s to party's friends.
Policies: higher taxes and higher spending, brought in gay marriage
Geographical power base: Eastern Canada and Ontario.
UK equivalent: Labour
US equivalent: the Democrats
Leader: Paul Martin, millionnaire business man, otherwise known as 'Mr Dithers'. Criticised for being a weak leader.

Perception: Liberals generally perceived as having no policies but wanting to hang on to power. Their minority government was elected in June 2004 and has been hanging by a thread ever since.
Election Strategy: frighten the country out of voting Conservative.
Current Poll rating: 27%


The Conservatives
Ideology: right-wing, free-enterprise party
Policies: lower taxes, personal freedom, "family values", want to abolish gay marriage, bring in private healthcare
Geographical power base: the West, especially Alberta
UK equivalent: the Tories
US equivalent: the Republicans
Leader: Stephen Harper, MP from Calgary south-west. Criticised for being a 'cowboy from Alberta', being too right-wing, having no personality

Perception: Much loved in the west for being straightforward, feared in the east for possibly wanting to ban abortion, make homosexuality illegal, etc. Easterners afraid of Albertans running the country. Also criticised for being too close to George W Bush. Might be coming at the right time, given the current wave of prosperity in Alberta.
Election Strategy: 'It's Time for a Change", "No More Corruption", "Stand Up for Canada", "At Least We Won't Steal Your Money"
Current Poll rating: 38%


The National Democrats
Ideology: left-wing, social enterprise party
Policies: higher taxes, save the environment, support working Canadians, protect public healthcare system
Geographical power base: the Prairies
UK equivalent: the Lib Dems
US equivalent: ?
Leader: Jack Layton, businessman, ex-hippie-type

Perception: a bit wishy-washy, bit of a tree-hugger
Election Strategy: "Give the Liberals the Boot", "Give Us Your Vote, Just This Once"
Current Poll rating: 20%

There are two other main parties, the Bloc Quebecois (Quebec separatist party) and the Green Party, but neither is large enough to form a goverment.

Before Christmas, the Liberals seemed to have the election sewn up and had a big lead, but then another scandal emerged and the Conservatives took a lead. The Liberals responded by putting negative 'attack ads' on the TV, which only made things worse for them, as they were generally regarded as being desperate and untrue. For the last 2 weeks, the Tories have had a commanding lead (10+% points) and the Liberals have been reduced to campaigning on the issue of 'Don't vote for the Tories, they'll wreck the country". The Prime Minister, Paul Martin, looks pretty desperate at the moment, as he knows he's going to lose.

So what's gonna happen? Well, the Tories will win, there's not much doubt of that. They might win enough seats for a majority government, but more likely they'll have a strong minority with NDP support. We'll keep you posted with an update on Election Night. If Harper becomes PM, it looks like Alberta's star will keep on rising...

See you soon

J